Tue, Jan 31, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 48 | 16 | 626 |
| NYR | 011 | 07 | 419 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53CBJSeth JonesAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:06CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 3:42CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Ryan Murray, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–0
- P2 12:52CBJSeth JonesAssists: Scott Hartnell, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 16:04CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–0
- P3 1:49CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Zach Werenski, Josh Anderson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–0
- P3 2:51NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.02 xG6–1
- P3 5:01NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Brady Skjei, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG6–2
- P3 6:12NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.28 xG6–3
- P3 18:53NYRKevin KleinAssists: Nick Holden, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.02 xG6–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:11CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:37CBJScott Harrington: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:37NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P2 2:03CBJJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:03NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:49
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson9:38
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak9:47
xG 0.08–0.42 (15%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg10:12
xG 0.55–1.03 (35%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Jones – Werenski8:38
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Prout – Werenski6:45
xG 0.13–0.46 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Murray18:28
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:06
xG 1.27–0.27 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad4:29
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Pirri – Puempel – Vesey7:25
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey5:21
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei9:37
xG 0.95–0.23 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Klein – Holden6:37
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Staal – Skjei4:25
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).