Tue, Jan 31, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 02 | 110 | 116 |
| CAR | 28 | 212 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:37CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 16:28CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 18:05CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 5:10CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.15 xG0–5
- P3 10:27PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P2 0:14PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:09PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05CARLee Stempniak: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:35PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:10PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:12CARLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P3 4:49PHINick Cousins: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:49PHIMatt Read: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:46CARJay McClement: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:26CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:57CARViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min
- P3 19:53PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl8:56
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:01
xG 0.05–0.33 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny7:59
xG 0.23–0.73 (24%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
- Read – Cousins – Couturier10:22
xG 0.07–0.64 (10%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov10:20
xG 0.18–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Streit – Manning3:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Gudas8:54
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan8:58
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom9:23
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho7:46
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Rask – Teravainen – McGinn7:46
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk12:12
xG 1.08–0.09 (92%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin10:37
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce13:46
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).