Tue, Jan 31, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 29 | 110 | 15 | 424 |
| DET | 07 | 111 | 212 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Pavel Zacha, Jacob Josefson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 6:21NJDKyle PalmieriSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 18:03DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Anthony Mantha · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 19:26NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Taylor Hall, Ben Lovejoy · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 10:30NJDAdam HenriqueSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 11:49DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 15:18DETNick JensenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Xavier Ouellet · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:09NJDPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:27DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:17NJDVernon Fiddler: Holding2 min
- P2 9:01NJDKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:18NJDStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:44NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Noesen – Zacha8:59
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall10:24
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Fiddler – Smith-Pelly5:25
xG 0.11–0.03 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Wood11:58
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Severson15:52
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Stollery – Santini13:41
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Merrill14:16
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha9:20
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Abdelkader – Sheahan – Glendening6:57
xG 0.14–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Sheahan – Athanasiou2:26
xG 0.01–0.01 (32%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Larkin9:46
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Ouellet14:18
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Jensen3:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser16:24
xG 0.27–0.53 (33%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).