Tue, Jan 31, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 26 | 210 | 524 |
| STL | 15 | 115 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37STLAlexander SteenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:29WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 0:22WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 5:53WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 19:08STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:33WPGJacob TroubaGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Copp · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 19:47STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 19:57WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:03STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:03WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:46STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:42WPGBrandon Tanev: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Copp13:09
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine14:34
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev6:42
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:07
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey21:07
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 20–17goals 0–2
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:05
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:11
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Yakupov – Fabbri8:27
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:23
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev2:30
xG 0.04–0.04 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Perron12:50
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko6:22
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson17:47
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson5:11
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).