Wed, Feb 1, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 18 | 116 | 333 |
| WSH | 26 | 18 | 28 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:34WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Matt Niskanen, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 18:46BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:49BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 19:45WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 3:29WSHBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 15:53WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 18:29BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:59WSHBrett Connolly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:40WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:58BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:36BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:22BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:54WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Marchand – Pastrnak3:01
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Spooner6:55
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Vatrano11:47
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Schaller7:32
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo15:31
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Miller10:10
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Chara – McQuaid14:58
xG 0.45–0.94 (32%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:32
xG 1.35–0.55 (71%)attempts 19–19goals 2–0
- Winnik – Wilson – Stephenson6:20
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:26
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Beagle – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:40
xG 0.10–0.21 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:53
xG 1.06–0.62 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov16:11
xG 0.70–0.80 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Orpik – Schmidt13:24
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).