Wed, Feb 1, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 013 | 110 | 06 | 129 |
| CGY | 29 | 016 | 311 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Sam Bennett, Kris Versteeg · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:09CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 12:40MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 6:19CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 7:32CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 13:47CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:25MINJason Zucker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:04CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:07MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:03CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P2 7:45CGYLance Bouma: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:24MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53CGYKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:43MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Schroeder – Niederreiter4:16
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Haula8:47
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund8:05
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac2:40
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:15
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 24–8goals 1–1
- Reilly – Dumba2:51
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba15:28
xG 0.16–0.48 (24%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Ferland8:17
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan10:07
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett10:08
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:32
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton10:45
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka12:30
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Wideman – Jokipakka3:25
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).