Wed, Feb 1, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 0, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 010 | 06 | 022 |
| LAK | 311 | 016 | 213 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47LAKMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 7:15LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 17:42LAKJeff CarterAssists: Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 4:11LAKDustin BrownAssists: Nic Dowd, Kevin Gravel · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 10:46LAKDwight KingUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:57LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57COLJohn Mitchell: Instigator2 min
- P1 1:57COLJohn Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57COLJohn Mitchell: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:20LAKMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:07COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:11LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P2 6:07LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:10COLJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:13LAKDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Nieto – Landeskog12:47
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg3:48
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Colborne2:28
xG 0.01–0.01 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:44
xG 0.26–1.23 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Barrie15:15
xG 0.45–0.49 (47%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Zadorov15:35
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Gelinas10:34
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:33
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- King – Nolan – Dowd3:45
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson5:43
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Brown – Pearson3:06
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Forbort16:44
xG 1.21–0.57 (68%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- McNabb – Gravel10:47
xG 0.38–0.07 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:45
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).