Thu, Feb 2, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 115 | 010 | 15 | 244 |
| BUF | 012 | 010 | 113 | 02 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:50NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 14:29BUFCody FransonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 3:56NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:22NYRKevin Klein: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:39NYRDan Girardi: Holding2 min
- P2 4:18BUFTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
- P2 17:16BUFMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37NYRDan Girardi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:12NYRChris Kreider: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:12BUFMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- OT 1:52BUFTaylor Fedun: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Fast – Miller10:02
xG 1.04–0.11 (91%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:35
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Lindberg – Puempel – Buchnevich5:30
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey12:18
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:34
xG 0.72–0.26 (74%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Klein – Skjei11:53
xG 0.74–0.72 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Staal – Holden17:41
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Kane – Girgensons10:58
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Ennis – Deslauriers – Carrier2:15
xG 0.01–0.02 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Ennis – O'Reilly4:29
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel12:20
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian4:47
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Falk – Fedun6:13
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Franson – Fedun3:55
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).