Thu, Feb 2, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 06 | 05 | 116 |
| PHI | 010 | 17 | 27 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51MTLNikita NesterovAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 17:50PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:32PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:46PHISean CouturierENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:44MTLTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:27PHIChris VandeVelde: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:46MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:11MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Flynn – de la Rose7:42
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk5:55
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Shaw – Galchenyuk5:38
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Danault – Flynn3:38
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu18:20
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin15:26
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Markov – Nesterov12:38
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Weise – Schenn9:47
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:40
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:08
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Couturier12:03
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas14:38
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov16:31
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz12:38
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).