Thu, Feb 2, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 214 | 212 | 03 | 429 |
| DAL | 215 | 113 | 014 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50WPGBryan LittleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:55DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 13:59DALJamie BennAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 19:07WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 5:55WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 12:51WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 17:58DALPatrick EavesAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:49WPGPatrik Laine: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:05DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:44DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P3 0:17WPGMark Scheifele: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Copp16:47
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Perreault – Petan4:28
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine11:48
xG 0.76–0.91 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia12:16
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma8:00
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey16:07
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba3:47
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Eakin11:53
xG 0.95–0.36 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Sharp – Faksa – Shore12:57
xG 0.80–0.72 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Korpikoski – Seguin – Ritchie2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Seguin9:28
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn15:42
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Johns – Nemeth12:55
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell15:55
xG 1.07–1.08 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).