Fri, Feb 3, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 1, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 010 | 03 | 123 |
| FLA | 114 | 114 | 09 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:39ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:52FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jason Demers, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 15:02FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:08ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:35FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:55ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:19ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:19FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:19ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:22FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:49ANAKorbinian Holzer: Holding2 min
- P2 9:54ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:48ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Shaw – Ritchie6:51
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Boll – Cramarossa8:27
xG 0.02–0.22 (7%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:27
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:55
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Manson2:59
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler12:11
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Holzer – Vatanen5:59
xG 0.03–0.13 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:53
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault7:21
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:18
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour6:03
xG 0.06–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Ekblad13:14
xG 0.67–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers12:29
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson12:24
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).