Fri, Feb 3, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 116 | 111 | 19 | 12 | 438 |
| NJD | 011 | 313 | 04 | 01 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:15CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:22CGYKris VersteegPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 8:36NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Miles Wood · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:39NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 19:36NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Miles Wood, Taylor Hall · Deflected, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 7:22CGYMatt StajanAssists: TJ Brodie, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 1:13CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:17CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:12NJDBen Lovejoy: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 0:00NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:03CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:05CGYDennis Wideman: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21CGYMatt Stajan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:21NJDPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:11
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan13:14
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland6:49
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett12:45
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie15:50
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Giordano – Hamilton18:07
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka12:37
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall10:16
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Blandisi – Kalinin7:44
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Wood7:39
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Josefson – Noesen – Zacha10:53
xG 0.13–0.37 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Lovejoy17:12
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
- Quincey – Severson15:02
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Helgeson – Santini11:35
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).