Fri, Feb 3, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 110 | 06 | 125 |
| CAR | 15 | 012 | 16 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36CARJordan StaalAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 8:04EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:48CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:19CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 4:38CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:29CARSebastian Aho: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:14EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid15:15
xG 1.18–0.30 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian7:30
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Slepyshev – Caggiula9:11
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:48
xG 0.11–1.07 (9%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Klefbom2:03
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell6:53
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Davidson – Klefbom2:55
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Teravainen – McGinn8:49
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Ryan2:15
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom6:48
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask2:43
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk16:15
xG 1.07–0.60 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin11:06
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce18:52
xG 0.65–0.75 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).