Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 112 | 16 | 330 |
| MTL | 17 | 05 | 110 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02WSHJay BeagleAssists: Daniel Winnik, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 7:32MTLAlexander RadulovAssists: Phillip Danault, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:26WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Brett Connolly, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 5:16WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 7:49MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:19MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:02MTLSven Andrighetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:52WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:19WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:53MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:43WSHAndre Burakovsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:14MTLAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:18
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:26
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson7:50
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:34
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt8:18
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:03
xG 0.38–0.44 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Orlov16:39
xG 0.49–0.79 (38%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk2:00
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Shaw – Andrighetto10:30
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault10:58
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Byron – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen6:49
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu11:29
xG 0.91–0.59 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 2–2
- Weber – Emelin14:42
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Markov – Nesterov12:42
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).