Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 18 | 010 | 225 |
| COL | 214 | 18 | 26 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:35WPGAdam LowryAssists: Joel Armia · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:35COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 0:29WPGAdam LowryPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- P2 8:03COLMatt NietoGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 2:04COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Jarome Iginla, Patrick Wiercioch · Slap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:22COLMatt NietoENAssists: Matt Duchene, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:39COLCody Goloubef: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:43COLFrancois Beauchemin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:13WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:42WPGJacob Trouba: Instigator2 min
- P3 9:42WPGJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:42WPGJacob Trouba: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:42COLNikita Zadorov: Charging2 min
- P3 9:42COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:05COLCody Goloubef: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Copp12:59
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:17
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Perreault – Petan4:48
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia11:28
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba14:43
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Trouba3:57
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey17:39
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Comeau9:39
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Grigorenko10:56
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:21
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Soderberg – Colborne – Martinsen5:50
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Gelinas3:03
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Goloubef – Zadorov2:17
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Barberio10:17
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).