Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 04 | 13 | 00 | 2 | 216 |
| TBL | 17 | 115 | 010 | 05 | 3 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14ANABrandon MontourAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:48TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:56TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 4:02ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 2. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 3. TBL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 4. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 6. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 7. TBL Brian Boyle scored
- 8. ANA Corey Perry stopped
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:08TBLGabriel Dumont: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:33ANAShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:36TBLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min
- P1 10:52TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:52ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:24TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:00TBLBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:00ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:47ANARyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:24ANABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:16TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:12ANAAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 16:33ANAShea Theodore: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:33ANAShea Theodore: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:11TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:19ANANate Thompson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:19TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell10:39
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:52
xG 0.00–0.12 (1%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Ritchie – Kase7:31
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cramarossa – Shaw4:28
xG 0.00–0.56 (0%)attempts 0–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Lindholm3:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Manson – Theodore7:01
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour3:01
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestDumont – Brown – Paquette4:38
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:17
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Vermin5:39
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin2:35
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin10:20
xG 0.78–0.02 (98%)attempts 19–2goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sustr10:02
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Stralman – Garrison12:03
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).