Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 311 | 02 | 12 | 525 |
| NYI | 114 | 211 | 111 | 01 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Brett Pesce, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:14NYIAnders LeeAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Josh Bailey · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:36NYICasey CizikasAssists: Ryan Strome, Shane Prince · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 2:57CARRon HainseyAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 4:37CARLee StempniakAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 19:00NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 19:58CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 8:33NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Anders Lee · Slap, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 2:52CARRon HainseyGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:30CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P1 16:51NYIAlan Quine: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:19NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:30CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:34CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P3 14:20NYIShane Prince: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:12CARSebastian Aho: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Teravainen – McGinn12:04
xG 0.55–0.41 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom9:47
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho12:26
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan9:31
xG 0.25–0.70 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce17:53
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin8:41
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk15:36
xG 0.17–0.82 (17%)attempts 10–21goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:52
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier9:18
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine7:53
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kulemin – Cizikas – Prince8:08
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pelech12:23
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 22–9goals 2–2
- Boychuk – Leddy18:26
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan15:06
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 20–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).