Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 27 | 112 | 431 |
| STL | 04 | 012 | 17 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:34PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Carter Rowney, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 12:02PITJustin SchultzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 10:22STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Colton Parayko, Joel Edmundson · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 19:42PITSidney CrosbyENUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.58 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:28STLDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:45PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:34STLJori Lehtera: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:20STLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P3 3:39STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:07STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:07STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:07STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Guentzel9:41
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Rust10:18
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Hornqvist – Hagelin – Rowney2:56
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson8:25
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz10:51
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin16:06
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta8:48
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Perron8:47
xG 0.30–0.02 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev6:02
xG 0.19–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:40
xG 0.04–0.46 (8%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:28
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko5:09
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Parayko11:45
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).