Sat, Feb 4, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 217 | 38 | 536 |
| DAL | 010 | 112 | 212 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:08DALRadek FaksaAssists: Devin Shore, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:20CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Tanner Kero, Marian Hossa · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 8:34CHIGustav ForslingAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 0:40DALJamie BennAssists: Cody Eakin, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 9:24DALTyler SeguinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 9:59CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 15:57CHITrevor van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–3
- P3 19:59CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:05CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:43CHIRichard Panik: Holding2 min
- P2 6:34CHIJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:34DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:30DALDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:18CHIArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
- P3 18:57DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin11:49
xG 1.12–0.47 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Tootoo – Hartman – Kero5:26
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Rasmussen10:14
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz9:04
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – van Riemsdyk13:05
xG 0.87–0.27 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Forsling14:06
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 26–11goals 1–2
- Keith – Hjalmarsson18:23
xG 1.00–0.73 (58%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Seguin – Ritchie9:19
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Sharp – Faksa – Shore10:38
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin11:37
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – McKenzie6:42
xG 0.00–0.78 (0%)attempts 0–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Johns2:07
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Johns – Nemeth12:43
xG 0.34–0.56 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Benn12:36
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).