Sat, Feb 4, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 6, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 314 | 113 | 639 |
| VAN | 111 | 27 | 09 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:01MINMike ReillyAssists: Christian Folin, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:52VANBrandon SutterAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:35MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Zucker, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:06MINMikael GranlundSHAssists: Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 8:36VANBo HorvatAssists: Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 9:30MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Eric Staal · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 18:19MINMikko KoivuAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P2 19:17VANBrandon SutterPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 10:19MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.15 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:45VANNikita Tryamkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:55MINTyler Graovac: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:05MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:26VANNikita Tryamkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:26VANNikita Tryamkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Tuch12:37
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 19–4goals 1–1
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:50
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:58
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 3–0
- Stewart – Coyle – Graovac9:52
xG 0.11–0.31 (27%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon23:32
xG 1.61–0.51 (76%)attempts 27–13goals 3–1
- Dumba – Folin2:20
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba17:07
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Chaput – Gaunce8:46
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund3:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson11:18
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Hansen – Sutter – Granlund10:33
xG 0.20–0.45 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Tanev16:40
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Edler – Larsen3:18
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Edler – Stecher14:00
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).