Sun, Feb 5, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 1, Montréal Canadiens 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 015 | 010 | 05 | 02 | 1 | 132 |
| MTL | 08 | 07 | 05 | 02 | 0 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 2. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
- 3. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 4. EDM Mark Letestu stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:40MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:42MTLNathan Beaulieu: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:46MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:29EDMDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P3 10:06MTLAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Lander – Kassian6:20
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Slepyshev – Caggiula8:09
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid14:41
xG 0.69–0.86 (44%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:20
xG 0.28–1.05 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson12:26
xG 0.73–0.66 (53%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Sekera – Oesterle13:39
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom17:14
xG 0.21–1.03 (17%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Shaw – Lehkonen9:09
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault13:53
xG 0.86–0.48 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Byron – Galchenyuk9:22
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Andrighetto – de la Rose8:15
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu13:41
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin14:28
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Emelin – Beaulieu2:38
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).