Mon, Feb 6, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New York Islanders 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 211 | 19 | 01 | 532 |
| NYI | 213 | 18 | 212 | 11 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23NYIRyan StromeAssists: Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 13:27TORNikita SoshnikovAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:51TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 18:13NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Casey Cizikas, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 5:12TORMitch MarnerAssists: Tyler Bozak, Matt Hunwick · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 9:34TORZach HymanSHAssists: Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 13:48NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Strome, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 13:30NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anders Lee, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–4
- P3 17:59TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Connor Carrick, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 18:31NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- OT 2:42NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (2)
- P2 8:11TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 15:43NYINick Leddy: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov7:42
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 1–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:33
xG 0.50–0.76 (40%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander11:33
xG 0.43–0.82 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews13:12
xG 0.72–1.36 (35%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick15:25
xG 0.84–0.59 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Carrick18:12
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev17:14
xG 0.89–1.89 (32%)attempts 16–25goals 2–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:18
xG 1.29–0.71 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Kulemin – Cizikas – Prince10:44
xG 0.61–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine7:55
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier11:27
xG 0.65–0.78 (45%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan16:18
xG 1.27–0.70 (64%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Boychuk – Leddy19:32
xG 1.29–0.84 (60%)attempts 22–19goals 1–2
- Hickey – Pelech15:03
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).