Mon, Feb 6, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
St. Louis Blues 2, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 01 | 111 | 14 | 216 |
| PHI | 011 | 04 | 011 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:22STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 2:10STLKenny AgostinoAssists: David Perron, Jori Lehtera · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:08STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:09STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:43PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:43STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:06PHIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:51STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:22STLColton Parayko: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:22STLColton Parayko: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:22PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Pietrangelo
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Lehtera – Agostino10:20
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev6:16
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko11:54
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- Berglund – Schwartz – Jaskin9:36
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:06
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:58
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko13:44
xG 0.40–1.02 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl11:44
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Cousins – Couturier11:51
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Weise – Schenn – Konecny6:11
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov6:32
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas13:12
xG 1.03–0.37 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:39
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz10:43
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).