Tue, Feb 7, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 217 | 114 | 19 | 00 | 440 |
| BUF | 110 | 08 | 317 | 11 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 14:03SJSJoel WardAssists: Brent Burns, Paul Martin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 17:13SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 11:23SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Marcus Sorensen, Micheal Haley · Slap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 6:07SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 9:03BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 11:36BUFEvander KaneAssists: Cody Franson, Brian Gionta · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 12:31BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Sam Reinhart, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:05BUFEvander KaneGWGAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:44SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:32BUFDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:53BUFTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
- P3 4:42BUFJustin Bailey: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:21SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:03SJSMelker Karlsson: Throwing equipment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl12:34
xG 1.25–0.24 (84%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Ward – Tierney – Meier9:42
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Boedker9:28
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Haley – Sorensen – Karlsson6:37
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:37
xG 1.26–0.58 (69%)attempts 17–20goals 2–1
- Schlemko – Dillon10:15
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns14:58
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Kane – Eichel3:43
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel8:30
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Foligno9:49
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Gionta – Girgensons – Bailey9:42
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Ristolainen2:35
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ristolainen16:19
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Franson – Kulikov2:33
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).