Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 06 | 010 | 023 |
| WSH | 27 | 08 | 313 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:47WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Andre Burakovsky, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 6:10WSHLars EllerAssists: Brett Connolly, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 6:37WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 14:12WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:58CARRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:12CARKlas Dahlbeck: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:51WSHJustin Williams: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:14WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
- P3 1:55WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:34CARTeuvo Teravainen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Lindholm – Aho12:39
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan13:10
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom8:28
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Rask – Teravainen – McGinn11:00
xG 0.08–0.28 (23%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin2:12
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin12:40
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce8:32
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beagle – Wilson9:38
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:43
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:36
xG 0.25–0.34 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:10
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt13:02
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:23
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:44
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).