Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Dallas Stars 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 016 | 07 | 117 | 140 |
| TOR | 110 | 117 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09TORJake GardinerAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 17:32TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 4:00DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Cody Eakin · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 7:26TORNikita ZaitsevPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:02TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:02TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:18DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:27DALTyler Seguin: Holding2 min
- P3 3:58TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:53DALCody Eakin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:47DALAdam Cracknell: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 6:57DALRadek Faksa: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 14:31TORConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin4:06
xG 0.42–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin8:17
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Sharp – Faksa – Shore8:22
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Ritchie – Shore2:02
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Nemeth9:16
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Klingberg3:02
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:25
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:02
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews10:03
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov5:57
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander8:06
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick11:27
xG 1.22–0.54 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Polak – Hunwick11:26
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev15:27
xG 0.51–1.26 (29%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).