Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 6, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 013 | 27 | 410 | 630 |
| OTT | 05 | 011 | 014 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:51STLMagnus PaajarviGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:46STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Paul Stastny, David Perron · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 1:46STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Kenny Agostino, David Perron · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 10:43STLAlexander SteenAssists: Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.32 xG4–0
- P3 13:49STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 15:01STLIvan BarbashevUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG6–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:10OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:10STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P1 14:13OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:37STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:28STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:38OTTChris Wideman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko10:40
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Schwartz10:43
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Perron – Lehtera – Agostino10:14
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev8:19
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Bortuzzo12:40
xG 1.35–0.07 (95%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko15:43
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:16
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Dzingel – Pageau3:06
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel6:23
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Smith2:53
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau2:27
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Wideman2:52
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci4:14
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Ceci8:39
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).