Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 08 | 06 | 13 | 327 |
| DET | 114 | 17 | 03 | 02 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22DETNick JensenAssists: Dylan Larkin, Riley Sheahan · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:20CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:56CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 9:00DETThomas VanekPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–2
- OT 3:22CBJSeth JonesGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:16CBJScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:16DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:14CBJScott Harrington: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:06CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:27DETNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P2 17:06CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:06DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:43DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg11:41
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Calvert – Karlsson2:35
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson6:36
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:52
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski18:52
xG 1.12–0.13 (90%)attempts 26–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray5:35
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Harrington – Murray8:54
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist3:45
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Larkin9:25
xG 0.30–0.29 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Abdelkader – Jurco – Glendening3:35
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha8:40
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet11:51
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Green – DeKeyser16:54
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Jensen17:02
xG 0.56–0.94 (37%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).