Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Los Angeles Kings 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 019 | 03 | 06 | 028 |
| TBL | 16 | 38 | 17 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46TBLJonathan DrouinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:55TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 11:02TBLGabriel DumontAssists: JT Brown, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 18:18TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Luke Witkowski · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 13:08TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Joel Vermin · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:15TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:26LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:26TBLTyler Johnson: Embellishment2 min
- P1 9:41LAKMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:14TBLAndrej Sustr: Interference2 min
- P2 2:14LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:44LAKTyler Toffoli: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:04TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson9:16
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar13:13
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Lewis – King – Shore9:29
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Clifford – Dowd – Andreoff11:36
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – LaDue8:37
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb7:48
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort7:13
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:05
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Vermin – Drouin – Point2:18
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin8:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dumont – Brown – Paquette8:23
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr3:15
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Witkowski – Hedman3:17
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Witkowski3:34
xG 0.07–0.07 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).