Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 013 | 113 | 233 |
| NSH | 214 | 011 | 28 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01VANMarkus GranlundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:20NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:32NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 9:04NSHViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 12:06VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:17NSHMike FisherENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:54NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:05VANMichael Chaput: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:08NSHJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:31VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:48VANLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:20NSHP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:17VANAlexandre Burrows: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Skille – Chaput2:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Megna2:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Granlund3:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sutter – Granlund – Megna4:41
xG 0.13–0.07 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Tryamkin13:27
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Edler – Hutton2:42
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev13:09
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg14:01
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Wilson – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson11:16
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Fisher – Smith – Aberg8:41
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – McLeod – Watson4:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi9:53
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis4:41
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – Irwin15:40
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).