Tue, Feb 7, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 0, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 08 | 07 | 027 |
| COL | 27 | 110 | 19 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 2:25COLAndreas MartinsenAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Calvin Pickard · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:10COLMikko RantanenAssists: Mark Barberio, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 6:01COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Barberio · Slap, 0.13 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:08COLFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:38COLAndreas Martinsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:02COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:22MTLNikita Nesterov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:41MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:53COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:53MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:07COLFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43COLFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Andrighetto – Lehkonen3:45
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault3:49
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Shaw – Andrighetto7:18
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Byron – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen6:17
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Beaulieu14:27
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Weber – Emelin14:19
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Markov – Nesterov14:41
xG 0.52–0.78 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:51
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau9:36
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Grigorenko9:23
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Colborne – Martinsen6:26
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wiercioch11:07
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov16:22
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Goloubef – Barberio13:02
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).