Wed, Feb 8, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 210 | 07 | 15 | 432 |
| MIN | 010 | 219 | 16 | 03 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:09CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 1:46MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:15MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P2 17:24CHIRichard PanikAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 16:57MINErik HaulaAssists: Marco Scandella, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:09CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:55CHIRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:55MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:24MINCharlie Coyle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:31CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:58CHIDennis Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:30MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Schmaltz11:10
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Kero9:38
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Rasmussen10:16
xG 0.12–0.59 (16%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:31
xG 0.09–0.62 (13%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny14:08
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson17:10
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk16:09
xG 0.33–0.86 (28%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Coyle11:24
xG 1.03–0.14 (88%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund13:09
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Stewart – Haula – Tuch9:21
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Schroeder – Niederreiter11:24
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Olofsson13:00
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba15:32
xG 1.08–0.52 (68%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Suter – Spurgeon19:18
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).