Thu, Feb 9, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 113 | 19 | 330 |
| PHI | 116 | 09 | 010 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 16:40NYIAnders LeePPAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:13NYIJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 1:21NYICasey CizikasAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:50NYIShane Prince: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:57NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:57PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:57PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:27NYIShane Prince: Interference2 min
- P3 18:03NYIThomas Hickey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee10:02
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Cizikas – Prince12:19
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine10:23
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier9:28
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy14:47
xG 1.05–0.63 (62%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan16:24
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pelech14:27
xG 0.26–0.53 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov6:46
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Weise – Schenn – Read10:12
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Cousins – Couturier11:51
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:49
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov13:57
xG 0.72–0.12 (85%)attempts 27–9goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas11:32
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere15:26
xG 0.45–0.61 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).