Thu, Feb 9, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 211 | 010 | 233 |
| OTT | 27 | 014 | 16 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41OTTDion PhaneufSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:55OTTChris KellyENUnassisted · Deflected, 0.62 xG0–2
- P2 11:28DALAntoine RousselAssists: Radek Faksa, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 16:09DALJamie BennAssists: Esa Lindell · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 6:03OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:13OTTMike Hoffman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:54OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:54OTTDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:54DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:55OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:02DALEsa Lindell: Holding2 min
- P2 18:08DALStephen Johns: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:56OTTDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:17DALPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:17OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P3 19:56OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin9:23
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Sharp – Eaves – Shore7:30
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Hudler – Korpikoski – Cracknell2:47
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa11:36
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn10:10
xG 0.37–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Johns – Nemeth8:57
xG 0.35–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:20
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Stone – Dzingel5:43
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kelly – Turris – Wingels4:52
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone6:41
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel3:32
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci12:41
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Wideman7:42
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson10:15
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).