Thu, Feb 9, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 6, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 311 | 310 | 05 | 626 |
| FLA | 110 | 014 | 215 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:16LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 12:04FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 14:59LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 4:06LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 4:27LAKDwight KingAssists: Trevor Lewis, Paul LaDue · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–1
- P2 7:31LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tanner Pearson, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.25 xG6–1
- P3 11:09FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Michael Sgarbossa, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–2
- P3 19:38FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:19FLAJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:57LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:30FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:30LAKDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:32FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:32FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:32LAKTrevor Lewis: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:01FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:22LAKNicholas Shore: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:41LAKAndy Andreoff: Holding2 min
- P3 12:34FLAShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:06LAKMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Pearson9:24
xG 1.03–0.24 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 3–1
- Lewis – King – Shore8:17
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Clifford – Dowd7:15
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Andreoff12:42
xG 0.37–0.62 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – LaDue11:22
xG 1.20–0.12 (91%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Doughty – McNabb2:28
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:26
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck6:50
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Bjugstad3:13
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Smith – Trocheck4:33
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault5:18
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Demers11:20
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad11:17
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Matheson11:31
xG 0.57–1.21 (32%)attempts 16–14goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).