Thu, Feb 9, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 213 | 16 | 430 |
| COL | 013 | 05 | 110 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01PITPhil KesselAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:50PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 18:38PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 16:44COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:23PITChris KunitzENAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:42COLCody Goloubef: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:40COLJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:14PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14COLJoe Colborne: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:37COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:40PITEric Fehr: Holding2 min
- P3 12:54PITBrian Dumoulin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:31PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Rust6:16
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist3:09
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Rowney6:15
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl9:26
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Maatta11:12
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz15:02
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:17
xG 0.48–0.89 (35%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Colborne – Martinsen7:14
xG 0.29–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:04
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau8:37
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Nieto – Grigorenko10:15
xG 0.12–0.79 (13%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Zadorov3:04
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef4:21
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Zadorov2:28
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).