Fri, Feb 10, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 17 | 010 | 01 | 0 | 127 |
| MIN | 011 | 19 | 013 | 05 | 1 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:31MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 17:16TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jason Garrison, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Jason Pominville stopped
- 2. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. TBL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 6. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:27TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:52TBLBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:52MINMarco Scandella: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:29MINJason Zucker: Holding2 min
- P2 12:42TBLBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:31MINJason Pominville: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:39TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 18:53MINCharlie Coyle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:53TBLGabriel Dumont: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Kucherov2:08
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Condra7:25
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Drouin – Point8:38
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Drouin2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin14:21
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr11:45
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison16:40
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:10
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund13:54
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Haula9:42
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac8:14
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:56
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba9:38
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon2:49
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).