Fri, Feb 10, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 116 | 110 | 310 | 536 |
| WPG | 09 | 17 | 114 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:37CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:43WPGBryan LittleAssists: Toby Enstrom, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 12:16CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P3 17:01CHIDuncan KeithGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 18:09CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Slap, 0.51 xG4–1
- P3 18:49WPGAdam LowryPPAssists: Joel Armia, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–2
- P3 19:44CHIArtemi PanarinENAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:35WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 8:05WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:39CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:27CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:25CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Rasmussen10:12
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz10:28
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:23
xG 0.88–0.85 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Kero7:57
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson18:37
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Kempny12:16
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk13:25
xG 0.36–0.53 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Ehlers – Laine11:29
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Stafford – Copp – Petan5:45
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp3:33
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Perreault – Scheifele10:10
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Morrissey15:42
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba3:21
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot8:32
xG 0.04–0.34 (11%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).