Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 07 | 112 | 01 | 124 |
| PHI | 014 | 06 | 113 | 12 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:22PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 9:23SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 1:04PHIWayne SimmondsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:39SJSMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:07SJSMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:07PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:07PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:12SJSJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:32PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:27PHIBrandon Manning: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:46SJSPaul Martin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWard – Hertl – Meier11:40
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski2:28
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Tierney – Labanc2:47
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Haley – Sorensen – Labanc4:41
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martin – Burns15:14
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Dillon10:37
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun17:10
xG 0.53–0.83 (39%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Weal – Couturier8:20
xG 0.90–0.13 (87%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn13:34
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Raffl10:33
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Bellemare4:58
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas16:34
xG 1.25–0.59 (68%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere12:21
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov15:17
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).