Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 7, Nashville Predators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 413 | 214 | 737 |
| NSH | 16 | 214 | 111 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:19NSHRoman JosiPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:52FLAJussi JokinenPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:56NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:24FLANick BjugstadAssists: Michael Sgarbossa, Mark Pysyk · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 7:53FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 9:53FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–2
- P2 17:01NSHViktor ArvidssonSHAssists: Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 2:30FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 18:48NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Yannick Weber, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 19:22FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.61 xG7–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:25FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:25NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:15FLAMike Matheson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:48FLAShawn Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:24NSHPontus Aberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:57NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:15NSHCody McLeod: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:15FLAMichael Sgarbossa: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:15NSHCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:15NSHVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:15FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:01NSHFilip Forsberg: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:13FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:48NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:04NSHP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:04FLAVincent Trocheck: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:49FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault8:06
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck9:19
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour8:07
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:13
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Ekblad11:47
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson15:43
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Yandle – Demers12:04
xG 0.18–1.14 (14%)attempts 6–17goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Aberg11:40
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok7:03
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Fiddler – McLeod – Watson6:44
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:08
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:31
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm12:53
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).