Sat, Feb 11, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 19 | 16 | 224 |
| DAL | 39 | 113 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51DALEsa LindellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 5:49DALPatrick EavesAssists: Cody Eakin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 6:11DALCurtis McKenzieGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 5:06CARSebastian AhoAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 17:09DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Radek Faksa, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 5:13CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 10:19DALAdam CracknellAssists: Curtis McKenzie · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:30CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:17CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:13DALBrett Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:32CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:27DALStephen Johns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:34DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:34CARJordan Staal: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:34CARJordan Staal: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Lindholm – Aho14:00
xG 1.37–0.15 (90%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom6:00
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask13:16
xG 0.57–0.96 (37%)attempts 16–15goals 0–3
- Teravainen – McGinn – Ryan9:46
xG 0.18–0.68 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk15:47
xG 0.98–0.67 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Hanifin9:39
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce14:19
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie8:55
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Shore10:59
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Roussel – Seguin – Faksa11:51
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin11:43
xG 0.39–1.40 (22%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:10
xG 1.06–0.81 (57%)attempts 15–19goals 4–1
- Johns – Oleksiak14:50
xG 0.59–0.86 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Benn12:49
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).