Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 4, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 210 | 27 | 422 |
| WSH | 316 | 110 | 213 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:35WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–2
- P1 17:48WSHTom WilsonAssists: Daniel Winnik, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 7:16ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 12:18WSHDaniel WinnikSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 17:36ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–4
- P3 9:38ANARyan KeslerAssists: Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 11:48ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 17:21WSHZachary SanfordGWGAssists: Brett Connolly, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:47WSHMarcus JohanssonENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:39WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:24ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:24ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:24WSHDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:52ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:31WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:12WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 4:12ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Vermette – Getzlaf – Silfverberg9:19
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Vermette – Getzlaf – Shaw2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Rakell – Ritchie7:13
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg3:41
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lindholm – Montour14:05
xG 0.61–0.95 (39%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler15:22
xG 0.51–0.90 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 2–2
- Manson – Theodore12:23
xG 0.29–0.69 (29%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Sanford8:28
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:41
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson10:55
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:54
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt14:16
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:40
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Alzner – Carlson14:38
xG 0.78–0.88 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).