Sat, Feb 11, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 212 | 15 | 525 |
| EDM | 112 | 06 | 013 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 5:49CHIRichard PanikAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:54CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 8:37CHITrevor van RiemsdykUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 18:26CHIRichard PanikPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.29 xG4–1
- P3 15:49CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:29EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:35CHIGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:17EDMMatt Benning: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:08CHIRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:08EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:08EDMBrandon Davidson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:08CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:08CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:08EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Kero3:11
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Rasmussen6:41
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz13:15
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Kero7:05
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – van Riemsdyk17:08
xG 0.87–0.82 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Forsling16:12
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson18:31
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid9:07
xG 0.84–0.07 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins3:20
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid4:49
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Slepyshev – Caggiula6:58
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom19:27
xG 0.94–0.75 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Sekera – Oesterle10:01
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Davidson – Benning8:21
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).