Sun, Feb 12, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 214 | 115 | 334 |
| MIN | 212 | 19 | 39 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:01MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Gustav Olofsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:47MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 6:56DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:14MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Jason Pominville, Gustav Olofsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 15:39DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 3:59MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 4:34DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Nick Jensen, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 7:20MINChristian FolinAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 10:50MINZach ParisePPAssists: Eric Staal, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:07DETMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13MINChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:13DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:35DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P3 10:06DETXavier Ouellet: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:53MINNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:29
xG 1.42–0.35 (80%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Tatar – Larkin4:15
xG 0.05–0.03 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Tatar – Athanasiou4:38
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Tatar – Sheahan – Larkin2:40
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith4:41
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Ouellet12:15
xG 0.84–0.67 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Jensen7:06
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Coyle6:56
xG 0.72–0.51 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 3–2
- Pominville – Parise – Haula2:33
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter3:44
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Haula – Niederreiter8:06
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:08
xG 0.80–0.66 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Scandella – Folin13:40
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Prosser – Olofsson14:19
xG 0.57–0.87 (39%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).