Sun, Feb 12, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Colorado Avalanche 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 08 | 08 | 127 |
| NYI | 113 | 19 | 311 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12COLJoe ColborneAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 12:01NYINick LeddyAssists: Stephen Gionta, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:46NYIRyan StromePPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 1:21NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:22NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 13:48NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:28COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:44NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:44NYIShane Prince: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:44COLBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:54COLJoe Colborne: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28COLFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:17NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:12COLJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:29COLBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:29NYIShane Prince: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:29COLJohn Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:29COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:29NYIRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Beauvillier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Comeau10:50
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Colborne – Martinsen4:34
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Duchene – Nieto – Grigorenko9:51
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:57
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Barrie4:49
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:09
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie7:21
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ladd – Beauvillier7:46
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee9:06
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nelson – Prince – Strome9:18
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kulemin – Cizikas7:24
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Pelech12:22
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy14:04
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 3–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:44
xG 0.47–0.69 (40%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).