Sun, Feb 12, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 16 | 07 | 321 |
| NSH | 06 | 115 | 415 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:24DALJamie BennPPAssists: Radek Faksa, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:46DALPatrick SharpPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 12:02DALDevin ShorePPAssists: Brett Ritchie, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 15:25NSHRoman JosiAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 0:45NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: James Neal, P.K. Subban · Slap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 4:40NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: James Neal, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 6:02NSHFilip ForsbergSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 18:22NSHMike FisherENUnassisted · Snap, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:24DALCody Eakin: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:24NSHRyan Johansen: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:45NSHAustin Watson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:45NSHVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:45DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:45NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:03DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:03NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:03DALCurtis McKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:52NSHJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P1 12:45DALBrett Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:10NSHRyan Ellis: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26NSHMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:01DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:13NSHVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:50NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:33DALJohn Klingberg: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:15DALBrett Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:22DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:54NSHViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:58NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie6:29
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin6:54
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Shore5:59
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Roussel – Seguin – Faksa8:12
xG 0.40–0.73 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell10:59
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Benn8:30
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
- Johns – Oleksiak10:38
xG 0.24–0.84 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson7:10
xG 1.13–0.03 (98%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok5:45
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Fisher – Smith – Aberg7:39
xG 0.07–0.07 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Watson – Zolnierczyk4:57
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis13:19
xG 1.04–0.32 (77%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm11:42
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin9:18
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).