Tue, Feb 14, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 212 | 08 | 230 |
| NJD | 113 | 218 | 09 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jacob Josefson · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 6:43COLMark BarberioPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 8:55NJDAndy GreenePPAssists: Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 16:25NJDKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 18:34COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:06NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:11COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:04COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:52COLAndreas Martinsen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14NJDMiles Wood: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Nieto – Grigorenko8:57
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:11
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Colborne – Martinsen8:21
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Comeau13:02
xG 0.35–1.27 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Zadorov4:35
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie2:55
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie14:34
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall12:42
xG 1.27–0.46 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Josefson – Noesen – Zacha10:50
xG 1.17–0.38 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Blandisi – Kalinin6:18
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Wood10:31
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson13:29
xG 1.54–0.27 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Greene – Lovejoy16:39
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Merrill – Santini13:12
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).