Tue, Feb 14, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 211 | 013 | 236 |
| WPG | 16 | 110 | 38 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Andrew Copp, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 7:38WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Shawn Matthias, Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 8:43DALJamie BennAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 13:35DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 14:53WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:12WPGBlake WheelerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–4
- P3 18:58WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:25WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:02DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:28DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:28WPGBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:21DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:21WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:15DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:07WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:17WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:26DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 12:04WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Eakin5:36
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Shore6:41
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Faksa4:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Seguin5:16
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:53
xG 0.88–0.53 (62%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Benn10:49
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 21–9goals 0–2
- Johns – Oleksiak12:05
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Lowry – Armia9:38
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Laine10:29
xG 0.65–0.76 (46%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Petan7:15
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers10:08
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey15:49
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Stuart – Postma10:14
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:15
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).