Wed, Feb 15, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 015 | 17 | 111 | 233 |
| CBJ | 218 | 212 | 15 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30CBJJosh AndersonAssists: William Karlsson, Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:15CBJBoone JennerAssists: Zach Werenski, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
- P2 1:32CBJOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 9:56CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 17:28TORNazem KadriAssists: Leo Komarov, Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 6:19TORNazem KadriAssists: Josh Leivo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:39CBJMatt CalvertENAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:24CBJBoone Jenner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:25TORNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
- P2 5:17TORMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:03TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30TORAuston Matthews: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:57CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57TORTyler Bozak: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:19CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Leivo3:31
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 2–0
- Martin – Smith – Leivo4:42
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews10:09
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown2:06
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick10:51
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick15:00
xG 0.57–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Hunwick – Rielly2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:40
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:06
xG 0.71–0.70 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Foligno – Karlsson – Anderson9:26
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gagner – Calvert – Sedlak6:15
xG 0.04–0.56 (7%)attempts 2–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski12:46
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 3–1
- Murray – Jones2:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara10:59
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).