Wed, Feb 15, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 6, San Jose Sharks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 36 | 03 | 211 | 12 | 622 |
| SJS | 210 | 114 | 211 | 01 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:51SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 5:35FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 7:12FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 15:25SJSJoel WardAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 6:27SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Kevin Labanc, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 2:15FLANick BjugstadAssists: Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 12:41FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Petrovic · Slap, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 16:39SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: David Schlemko, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 19:22SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tomas Hertl, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–5
- OT 1:38FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.28 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:15SJSTimo Meier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:29FLAJason Demers: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:02FLADerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:39FLAJonathan Marchessault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:37SJSMicheal Haley: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:35FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault9:33
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:58
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour4:38
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck12:17
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Matheson15:04
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 15–15goals 3–1
- Yandle – Demers14:19
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Ekblad16:26
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Boedker10:38
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Haley – Tierney – Karlsson7:53
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc12:05
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Ward – Hertl – Meier7:52
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Dillon12:45
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Martin – Burns16:35
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 20–17goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Braun12:40
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).